Benchmarking COPA PDF Print E-mail
  
Saturday, 05 November 2005 22:38

The following report is for informational purposes only. It does not represent the views of the author regarding COPA Holdings, nor an opinion regarding the possible performance of the shares during and after the upcoming IPO. The author is not responsible for errors or omissions. The interpretation of this report is the sole responsibility of the reader. This report is subject to revisions.

 

In this report

• A look at the numbers
• Benchmarking COPA
• Companies selected
• Profitability margins
• Financial efficiency
• Peer valuation an estimated fair price

 

A look at the numbers

Operating Revenues (In millions)

Operating Revenues

Operating Expenses (In millions)

Operating Expenses

 EBITDA -In millions

EBITDA

Operating Income - In millions

Operating Income

Net Income (loss) - In millions

Net Income (loss)

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA Margin

Operating Income Margin

Operating Income Margin

Net Income Margin

Net Income Margin

Current Assets - In millions

Current Assets

Long Term Debt - In millions

Long Term Debt

Stockholders Equity - In millions

Stockholders Equity

Debt / Equity Ratio

Debt / Equity Ratio

Return on Equity - FY2000 has been excluded since the company reported a net income loss of $9.5M

Return on Equity

Return on Assets - FY2000 has been excluded since the company reported a net income loss of $9.5M

Return on Assets

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Invested Capital

 

Benchmarking COPA Companies Selected

GOLLinhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (GOL) is a low-cost, low-fare, worldwide airline. GOL operates a simplified fleet with a single class of service. The Company has a young and modern fleet that requires low maintenance, fuel and training costs, with high aircraft utilization and efficiency ratios. The Company offers over 410 daily flights to 45 major business and travel destinations in Brazil and Argentina, with substantial expansion opportunities.

GOL's growth plans include increasing frequencies in existing markets and adding service to additional markets in both Brazil and other high-traffic South American travel destinations. (Source:CNBC.com)

GOL Weekly

Ryanair Holdings plcoperates a low-fare scheduled passenger airline serving short-haul, point-to-point routes in Europe from its bases at Dublin, London (Stansted), Shannon, London (Luton), Glasgow (Prestwick), Brussels (Charleroi), Frankfurt (Hahn), Milan (Bergamo), Stockholm (Skavsta), Barcelona (Girona), Rome (Ciampino), Liverpool and Pisa airports. The Company offers approximately 600 scheduled short-haul flights per day serving 24 locations in United Kingdom and Ireland, and 107 locations in continental Europe with an operating fleet of 92 aircraft flying a total 266 routes.
(Source:CNBC.com)

RYAAY Weekly

Southwest Airlines Co. (Southwest) is a domesticairline that provides shorthaul, longhaul, highfrequency, point-to-point, low-fare service. During the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company operated 417 Boeing 737 aircraft and provided service to 60 airports in 59 cities in 31 states throughout the United States. Southwest began service to Philadelphia in May 2004, and announced the starting of the service in Pittsburgh in May 2005. During 2004, the Company closed its Dallas, Salt Lake City and Little Rock reservations centers. At December 31, 2004, the Company operated six reservation centers. (Source:CNBC.com)

LUV Weekly

JetBlue Airways Corporation is a low-cost passenger airline that provides customer service at low fares primarily on point-to-point routes. As of February 10,2005, the Company operated a total of 280 daily flights. The Company focuses on serving markets that previously were underserved and large metropolitan areas that have had high average fares. The Company serves 30 destinations in 12 states, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and The Bahamas.
(Source:CNBC.com)

JBLU Weekly

AirTran Holdings, Inc. is involved in the airline business in the United States through its principal wholly owned subsidiary, AirTran Airways, Inc. (Airways). Airways is a low-fare scheduled airline, which operates scheduled airline service primarily in short-haul markets, predominantly in the eastern United States.

The Company serves more than 60 communities in 23 states, the District of Columbia and the Bahamas. It primarily serves leisure and business travelers, and offers advanced seat assignment, business class, consumer-driven automation, such as online check in and Bye-Pass airport self-service kiosks, as well as its customer loyalty program, A-Plus Rewards. (Source:CNBC.com)

AAI Weekly

 

Benchmarking COPA Financial Benchmarks

Sales (in millions) LTM 9/2005

Sales LTM

EBITDA (in millions) LTM 9/2005

EBITDA LTM

Op. Income (in millions) LTM 9/2005

Op. Income

 

Benchmarking COPA Margins

EBITDA Margins

EBITDA Margins

Net Income Margins

Net Income Margins

 

Benchmarking COPA Financial Efficiency

Debt / Equity

Debt / Equity

Return on Equity D/E

By comparing ROE along with the D/E ratio, we obtain a better measure of effective use of debt towards the benefit of shareholders.

Return on Equity D/E

Return on Assets

Return on Assets

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Invested Capital

 

Peer Valuation Estimated Fair Value Based on Multiples

Multiple Valuation – Per IPO price range

Multiple Valuation

Multiple Valuation – W. Avg Implied Estimated Price

Multiple Valuation

Market Capitalization (in Billions) Per Estimated Avg. WA Price

Market Capitalization

Peer Valuation (Based on Multiples)

The IPO price range of the offering is expected to be between $15-$17 per share. However if we consider the current valuations of COPA‘s peers, (particularly GOLand RyanAir) based on multiples such as P/Sales, Current P/E, and P/BookValue the initial pricing maybe too low as an estimated fair price could be in the range of $30 -$43 per peer multiple valuation methodology. Interestingly using a DCF method (not included) gives an estimated price of $38.00

Peer Valuation

 

Benchmarking COPA Prepared by José N. Abbo December 5th, 2005 © 2005, All Rights Reserved