December 2009
Brazil Revisited PDF Print E-mail
  
Tuesday, 15 December 2009 03:36
Brazil's economy has been on our radar screen for the past couple of years and appeared to be a viable option for boosting portfolio growth. In fact, we gave it full coverage in an August 2008 article entitledBrazil: Take a Closer Look at Investing.

We noted that the country was the world's tenth largest economy and was growing at its fastest rate in 20 years. Brazil enjoyed a stable currency with inflation held in check, and a staggering amount of commodity exports and trade agreements. Consumer credit, which was available to many for the first time, had created a new middle class of confident spenders.  And Bovespa, Brazil’s stockmarket, was relatively robust.  

But since we're all linked into this tightly-meshed financial econo-sphere, when the global meltdown hit, Brazil was not immune.  First the Bovespa index hit the skids, down from its 73,000 highs in spring 2008 to below 30,000 by fall of the same year.  Then their currency (reals) tumbled to 2.5 reals to $1 in December, down from 1.55 reals to $1 during the prior few months.  

Now as 2009 draws to a close, we thought we'd drop in for a quick revisit to see how the country measures up with the rest of the world that's struggling to bounce back from the economic crisis.   

On the positive side, Brazil was the first country in Latin America to stage a recovery and got their economy back on more solid footing by the first half of 2009.  

The currency returned to pre-meltdown levels and the Bovespa index has now risen to 64,000—possibly overvalued since corporate earnings still lag, but investors are coming back.  The Bovespa has surged 85% this year and is positioned for its best gain since 2003, thanks in part to prospective government stimulus plans, rebounding commodity prices, and record low interest rates. Although since Brazil’s retail sales jumped in October at the fastest pace in a year, it's prompted speculation that the central bank will lift interest rates in the first half of 2010. 
Read more...
 
Ben Bernanke: Lancing the Next Bubble? PDF Print E-mail
  
Tuesday, 01 December 2009 02:25

While Ben Bernanke sweats out his pending confirmation in the Senate Banking Committee hearings in hopes of hanging on to his second four-year term as the country's Federal Reserve Chairman, others are anxiously eyeing the possibility of another bubble forming on the horizon.

Last month we gave you a preview about this topic in our posting,Bubble, Bubble, Toil, and Trouble. It included some dire predictions from Nouriel Roubini—he believes that investors are "chasing commodities" and creating a situation where asset bubbles can emerge when stock and commodity prices surge amid record-low interest rates.

We've also covered the whole history of financial bubbles in our book, The Big Gamble. It's all there in black and white and in plain view, so none of us can claim that we weren't informed, or shall we say, forewarned.

Now it's becoming increasingly clear that this bubble subject isn't going away any time soon.

The Fed openly admits that the current shaky recovery is not robust or quick enough to fuel job growth. Therefore, their answer is to continue holding down interest rates until the recovery gains traction. The growing concern is that these record-low interest rates (zero to 0.25 percent) could be sparking unrestrained financial market risk-taking and feeding the next speculative bubble.

While the short-term rationale to keep rates low makes some sense, we wonder about the long-term consequence. Experts predict that it's going to take five or six years before we see things reach stability in both the economy and the job market.

We've all heard the blustering and posturing about stiffer financial regulations and big pending policy changes to prevent future meltdowns. We just haven't seen much tangible evidence of it. While Bernanke hasn't faltered in his preference for regulations, his views about one thing have changed.

In the past, the Fed took a hands off approach to financial and asset bubbles. They were deemed too difficult to spot or, if identified, were best left alone. The belief was that raising the interest rates to slow the growth of a bubble might stunt growth in some other part of the economy, like causing inflation. But now Bernanke admits that these bubbles are indeed problematic for the monetary policy and that the previous solution—just waiting for them to burst and then mopping up afterwards with low interest rates, hasn't worked. Well, we're glad he's at least paying attention now.

Read more...
 


Login ::Register FREE::

Register Now For FREE
and receive 12 Keys to Smart Speculating in Tough Times!

What's Your Take?

What effect will electing Mr. Obama have on the global recession?
 


Finance blogs