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Written by José D. Roncal
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Wednesday, 31 December 2008 01:46 |
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As we start the New Year, it’s time to glance in the rear view mirror and rejoice that 2008 is behind us. It was a tumultuous year during which nearly every aspect of the global economy took a beating — from stocks and bonds to every other financial instrument on the major indexes. Hardly any industries or businesses were spared. The financial chaos leapt the boundaries of both country and class. It didn’t care if you were uber-wealthy or a hard-working blue collar worker. After a six-year bull run that brought shareholder gains of nearly $7 trillion, the U.S. markets watched those gains evaporate. These far-reaching losses punctuate one of the main themes of our book, “The Big Gamble: Are You Investing or Speculating?” The point being that no investment is 100% safe—never has been, never will be. And now, even though we’re eager to accelerate into a New Year, we can’t ignore that we’re still hitched to a trailer load of problems—problems Wall Street wants Washington to solve. A flight to “safety” now underway In the worst market plunge since 1931, the Dow lost 33.8% of its value in a mere twelve months. This time even the blue chips were hit—some of the biggest losers for the year were General Motors, down 84.7% and American Express, off by 64.5%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index sank 39.5% —the worst nosedive since 1937. In fact, with the exception of Wal-Mart and McDonalds, every one of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks suffered a loss of at least 10%. |
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Written by José D. Roncal
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Tuesday, 30 December 2008 20:32 |
In the book I co-authored—The Big Gamble: Are You Investing or Speculating—I wrote a chapter during the first quarter of 2008 entitled, The Mother of all Crisis: Haven't We Learned? The following appears on page 86:
"Foreclosures in 2006 increased by 42 percent compared to 2005, according to Realty Trac. By 2007, the increase was 75 percent compared to 2006. Things got worse as we entered 2008. For the first quarter of the year, foreclosure filings, according to the Realty Trac index, were now 112 percent higher compared to the same period during 2007. […] By the first quarter of 2008, home vacancies and foreclosures in the United States had hit an all time record, as people kept losing their homes, or simply walking away from their mortgages. Robert Shiller […] warned that house prices could drop by over 30 percent. A worst drop than was registered during the 1930s depression." |
Since writing that, things have gone from bad to worse. Today there are nearly a million repossessed homes on the market. Statistics reveal that on average, foreclosed homes are priced almost 40 percent lower than normal real estate listings. Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities declined at the fastest rate on record because of increasing foreclosures and slumping sales.
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Written by José D. Roncal
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Monday, 29 December 2008 23:25 |
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It wasn’t just autumn leaves that started falling last September; it was the entire investment banking system. When Lehman Brothers got into deep financial trouble and the U.S. government said “no deal” to their bailout request, the official unraveling began.
That was in September, but if anyone had been paying attention, they could have seen the early warning signs as far back as March when internal hedge funds at Bear Stearns got crushed under the weight of too many bad subprime bets.
For decades the energy in the market had been fueled by high-rolling investment bankers, but look what’s happened in the last nine months: Bear Stearns, snapped up by JPMorgan Chase; Lehman Brothers, gone; Merrill Lynch, bought out by Bank of America; and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, converted to bank holding companies just to stay in business—although it means they’ll have to operate with the strict regulatory shackles of the banking industry. Five major investment banks ... and then there were none. Essentially, the global economic crisis has ushered in the era of universal banking where massive financial firms offer every conceivable kind of investment product and service. Even smaller brokerage firms face being herded under the umbrellas of big banks, or else risk becoming irrelevant.
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